It almost feels like Christmas is approaching, doesn't it, 12s? The Seattle Seahawks season is just days away from beginning. The presents the team gives us this year could be fantastic (Super Bowl!) or lumps of coal (losing season!).
We don't yet know how good the team will be this year. Maybe we can assume Seattle should be good as the team has more talent than a bunch of other teams, but how healthy can they remain? And will Seattle's key players be very good?
The four players that follow need to be very good in 2023. But at least a couple of guys might be good and still too expensive to keep beyond this year. What follows are four players who might be playing their final year in Seattle.
Seahawks fullback/linebacker Nick Bellore
I really like Nick Bellore. Who doesn't? He plays hard and his a veteran voice in the locker room that other players respect (Bellore was voted as a team captain again this year). He keeps the team loose, but he is also a beast on special teams. Bellore is so valued by the Seahawks that the team keeps bringing him back at probably a slightly higher salary than most other teams would sign him to.
But at the beginning of the 2024 season, Bellore will be 35 years old, and special teams players can be found that are less costly. Dareke Young, for instance, made the team this year even though he suffered a hip injury in the preseason, and he's on the team mostly because he was so good on special teams in 2022.
Bellore's cap hit goes to $4 million in 2024 which seems like far too much for a player who does what he does on the field. And while he could return next season, more than likely he will either be released or have his contract restructured. He carries a dead cap of just $1,150,000 so Seattle would save almost $3 million by releasing him. Again, no offense meant toward Bellore because he is phenomenal to have on the team, but he's also expensive.
Seahawks safety Jamal Adams
Low-hanging fruit here, right? Doesn't make it any less true that Adams will not be back after 2023, however. There was some rightful speculation that he could even be released this offseason and Seattle would have saved millions of dollars by releasing him with a post-June 2nd designation. But, of course, the team kept Adams in hopes of him getting back to his 2020 level.
And yet he has already been ruled out for Week 1 and probably will miss Week 2 as well. My guess - and it is completely a guess - is that he doesn't start playing until after the bye week which means Week 6 could be his first game back. Adams, if healthy, can be a transformative player and augments the pass rush like few other defensive backs are capable of.
But the Seahawks have committed a ton of money toward the secondary already for 2024. Three safeties, Adams, Quandre Diggs, and Julian Love, are all set to make at least $8.1 million in 2024. Diggs can get paid as much as $15.1 million. But Adams now has a cap hit of $26.9 million next year (Seattle restructured Adams' deal a bit this week) and there should be zero chance that Seattle will pay him that much. Adams just hasn't been healthy enough to be counted on for that amount of money.
If Adams were to be released after 2023, his dead cap would account for $20,833,334 so Seattle would save a bit over $6 million. That's still a big chunk of dead cap, but saving that much money will ease any pain. That said, I really like Jamal Adams as a player and a person and I hope he has a fantastic 2023, whatever part he plays, and makes releasing him next offseason that much more difficult.
Seahawks wide receiver Dee Eskridge
More low-hanging fruit? Maybe. Seattle had every chance to release Eskridge this offseason and didn't. He has been oft-injured, playing poorly, or both. Plus, Eskridge has recently been suspended for the first six games of 2023 due to a domestic situation this offseason. I am not quite sure what the Seahawks still see in Eskridge, but they must like something because he would have been less costly to release than to keep this year.
Next year, though, there is literally no financial reason for Seattle to keep Eskridge. His cap hit is $1,894,296 while his dead cap is $422,455. Another team picking up Eskridge at this point is unlikely so even if Seattle were to release Eskridge next offseason they could probably re-sign him after he clears waivers for less money.
Quarterback Geno Smith gave Eskridge rave reviews prior to training camp starting this year and said he saw a lot of development in Eskridge's game. The issue, though, is that Eskridge is a second-round draft pick so he should have been fairly productive immediately. He hasn't been at all through two years. He's managed to play in 20 games for Seattle, catch just 17 passes and for only 122 yards.
Again, Seattle keeping Eskridge even this season is a little weird. But one must trust the thought process of a coaching staff that has been as successful as Seattle has been since 2010. If Eskridge is staying in 2023, there's a good reason. But if he isn't productive again at any point this year, there is no reason for him to be on the team in 2024.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith
Geno Smith not on the team in 2024? I am an idiot, right? (OK, I might be an actual idiot, and I wouldn't argue with you on that point.) But while Geno Smith was excellent in 2022, better in the first half than the second half of the season, he absolutely has to prove himself again in 2023. The Seahawks re-signed Smith to a front-loaded contract this offseason, but if he doesn't do well this coming year he likely won't be back.
Smith is hurt by the fact that so many college quarterbacks who could be available in the 2024 NFL draft appear so close to being ready to take over starting for an NFL team. Yeah, maybe if Seattle decides to move on from Geno Smith and replaces him with a rookie then the team will take a momentary step back in 2024, but that would also be expected. Would Seattle be better in 2026 and far beyond in this situation than keeping Smith?
We will know a lot more about the answer to that question after 2023, of course, but the season is going to go one of two ways for Geno Smith. One is that he uses all the weapons he has, and Smith will have a bunch in the form of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and drives the offense to great success this year. The other option is Smith is just fine but that a different, younger quarterback could potentially drive the bus better over the next five years.
General manager John Schneider signed Geno Smith the way Schneider wanted to. Smith's dead cap jumps to $31.2 million - still not a lot for a high-quality starting NFL QB - next year, but his dead cap is just $17.4 million. Seattle would save money by releasing Smith. The hope is that Smith is very good again this season, though, so that even his $31 million in 2024 looks like a bargain.