A not overly optimistic yet joyful prediction for the Seahawks 2023 record

We've waited what seems like forever for this season to start, right? But it's finally here, and so is my probably wildly off-base prediction of the Seattle Seahawks 2023 record. And while I'm optimistic, I'm not crazy, either. Well, no more so than usual.

Remember last year, 12s, when so many of the talking heads and national media said the Hawks would win five games? And one goofball even said they'd just win three? Yeah, I do too. This season, the disrespect still lingers. I'm seeing several predictions of 8-9, which I find laughable. Does anyone seriously think this team is worse than last year's? Last year's phenomenal rookie class should be even better with a full season of experience, and this year's rookies may prove to be an even better group. What unit hasn't seen an upgrade? When I see Bobby Wagner's return, the addition of Dre'Mont Jones, the rookies JSN and Spoon, I can only see a better team in every respect.

Much of the conjecture for a losing season is predicated on the tougher schedule, and that Seattle plays four of their last six games on the road. Okay, but two of those are at Tennessee and Arizona. The Titans were 7-10 last year and there's no reason to expect a rebound. And the Cardinals are - well, they're the Cardinals. Arizona is only 11-23 in the second half of the season over the last four years. Even in the one year they were good, 2021, they lost five of their last six games. So pardon me if I'm not exactly terrified.

The Seahawks may not be the best, but they won't be far off

Now let me temper that enthusiasm a bit. As I said, I'm optimistic, but I'm not completely crazy. I don't have the Hawks running the table and winning the Super Bowl in a blowout. Larry Csonka, Larry Little and the ghost of Don Shula don't allow undefeated seasons anyway. Not that end with a championship. Even with the tougher schedule, I see the Hawks improving on their 9-7 record from last season. I'm not going to break down each game, but I will go all Nostradamus on the final score for each, along with the final record. Without further adieu and a minimum of mathiness:

Yes, I expect the Lions to be a tough out this season. (By the way, I wrote this on Sept 6th, prior to the Motor City Kitties' win over the Chiefs). We all know what a wild game we got from them last year, and they should be much better this season. Besides, a lot of key players are still going to be getting back into high gear early in the season - Adams is out for the first month, for example. So 2-2 doesn't worry me at all. This team will get better as the season moves on.

Yes, I do see the Seahawks beating the Bengals on the road. And I am aware the Bengals are one of the top picks for best in the AFC. I agree. But like I said, no one's going undefeated. The only easy game in this stretch will be the Cardinals. I know, they usually give us fits, but this team just looks atrocious. So, halfway though, and I have Seattle at 5-3. I know, they're headed into the tougher part of the schedule. Fear not, dear 12s.

The Seahawks wrap their first half at 5-3, but their best ball is ahead

Listen, the Hawks have one weird game every year where you think, how did a Division III team get into our uniforms? This year, it will be against the Commanders, as it has been too often in the past. I do see the Hawks spanking the always-overrated Cowboys in Dallas, though, to bring their overall record to 7-5. It's a young team, and it takes time to grow into big roles. Now on to the finish.

Yep, I have the Seahawks beating the Niners in San Francisco in a brutal matchup. I don't see them bouncing back from that emotional high in time to handle the Eagles at home. And let's face it, Philadelphia is another great team. After that, I see our guys running the table with Geno Smith's offense running as smoothly as a V-12 , and just as strong. Meanwhile, the defense will continue to light it up all over the field.

That puts the Seahawks final record at 11-6. Like I said, that might be optimistic, but it isn't exactly crazy, either. This also projects Seattle with 463 points scored versus 350 points allowed. Those numbers from last season were 407 and 401, respectively. Oh, and I lied because I am about to get mathy.

Remember your geometry, 12s? There's a correlating mathy tool that applies to statistics. The Pythagorean won-loss formula compares points scored and points allowed. This formula states that the Hawks should win 64. 8 percent of their games. That would put them at - surprise - 11 wins. 11.02 wins, but the NFL isn't likely to give us that extra little bit.

The Seahawks 11-6 record should come as no surprise

In quick and dirty terms, the Pythagorean formula compares a team's points scored to their points allowed. It provides a reasonably good estimate of wins and losses, based on that differential. Bill James is the first I know of to come up with the stat. As far as I know, he created it, but just in case someone finds an example from 1937, I don't wanna get sued. James applied it to baseball, but it's since been applied to other sports. For those who want to look under the hood, Stanley Rothman wrote this in-depth examination of the tool for the Society for Baseball Research.

Okay, enough math. The point is, the scores I quite wildly projected for the Seahawks actually match my projected record phenomenally well. Too well, in fact, as teams routinely over-perform or under-perform their projections. Overall, the projections are quite accurate. The real issue here isn't the math, it's if the Hawks can actually do this. I find it hard to believe that with all the improvements this team has made that they won't improve on their record by two wins as well.

Smith has another year under his belt, and the Hawks trust him to run every play in the book. Walker will have a full season in the backfield, with a better stable of supporting players. Lockett and Metcalf can't be doubled anymore with the arrivals of Smith-Njigba and yes, Bobo. The pass rush will get a huge boost from Jones, Mafe, et al. The secondary is improved as well with Witherspoon in the lineup, and the eventual return of Adams. Oh, and there's this guy named Wagner; he's pretty good. So how does this team not improve by at least two games?

I realize some 12s would be disappointed with 11 wins, while others, the more pragmatic type, would be well pleased. I don't see the Hawks taking the NFC West from the Niners this year, but I do see them making more than a little noise in the playoffs. This is a very young team, after all. By the postseason, they'll likely have first or second-year starters at no fewer than eight positions or nine positions. There's no need to say wait till next year with this edtion of the Seahawks.

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