The Seahawks surprised most of the pundits in 2022 by making the playoffs. Their winning season was fueled by more than a few surprising performances. These are my candidates for the surprises of 2023.
The Seahawks opened more than few eyes by making the playoffs last year, when most writers and talking heads picked them to finish last in the NFC West. The 12s had faith, and the Hawks themselves certainly had faith. They never would have been in that position without the surprising contributions of several key players. No one was a bigger surprise than Geno Smith, of course. Okay, not to him, but to almost everyone,
The question for 2023 is, who is this year's version of Geno? Not that I think there's another eight-year vet on the Hawks that's gonna bust out an MVP-caliber season from nowhere - but you know what I mean. Although Mario Edwards does fit the criteria - except he'd need to get about 18 sacks to have a comparable year, and that's not happening. No, I don't think Edwards will be one of our big surprises in 2023. These gentlemen, though, I fully expect to make serious contributions to Seattle's push to not only make the post-season but make some serious noise when they get there.
Sure, there's an heir apparent at center for the Seahawks, but don't count out the veteran
Surprise season No. 1: Seahawks center Evan Brown
I do indeed believe that Olu Oluwatimi will be the Seahawks center in 2023 and that he'll eventually be outstanding. Please note the use of the term eventually. Olu will be a Pro Bowler in 2024, but it will take him some time to get up to speed. That's where Evan Brown comes in.
Brown bounced around the league for a few years before finding a home with the Lions in 2021. When their own Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow went down, Brown stepped in and only gave up one sack and eight QB hits. Brown is an upgrade over the retired Austin Blythe and showed he's capable of moving to guard as needed, too, as he did for all of 2022.
I expect Brown to start off the season at center, and Oluwatimi to take over after the bye. At that point, Brown can fill in at center or guard. With the injuries we've seen in the past, I wouldn't be surprised to see the former Lions starter get three or four starts at guard, in addition to the five at center. Yes, I'm aware that this means I see Olu as having the better season, as I have him taking the center job from Brown and holding it for the next ten years or so. That doesn't mean Brown won't be valuable all year. I see that as a surprisingly good year.
Seahawks will see young veteran players step up
Surprise season No. 2: Tight end Colby Parkinson
As with my first candidate, this doesn't mean I'm projecting Colby Parkinson to make the Pro Bowl. But he made a big jump in his third year with the Seahawks. His 25 catches were five times his numbers in 2021, while his 322 yards were nearly ten times the yardage. He accounted for 16 first down and two scores on those receptions, so - dare I say it? I dare - the 6'7" Parkinson came up big.
The Hawks targeted him deeper than in previous years with an average depth of 8.2 yards compared to just 5.9 in 2021. His yards before the catch jumped from 2.6 to 6.9, and his yards after the catch improved as well, from 4.0 to 6.0. His passer rating when targeted skyrocketed from 71.4 to 122.4. I have to admit, he didn't improve his drop rate, but that's only because he's never dropped a pass in three seasons.
I think it should be quite evident from all those crunchy numbers that Parkinson is a player on his way up. Whether or not you choose to believe the mathy people at Pro Football Focus (paywall alert) is up to you, but it's worth noting that they graded Parkinson ahead of Will Dissly in blocking for both passing and running plays. Whether you pay attention to their grades or not, he's clearly a better blocker than Noah Fant.
I really like Fant, but that's just not his game. Uncle Will has stayed pretty healthy now for three straight years, but even with that - and what I expect to be a great season from rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I see a significant uptick in snaps for Colby Parkinson and a much bigger impact on the Hawks season.
Surprise season No. 3: Seahawks edge rusher Boye Mafe
I've already said my piece about Mr. Mafe, so I won't dive into all the reasons I see him taking a big step forward this season. In the immortal words of Bernard Fife, "I don't chew my cabbage twice." Just go read what I wrote the first time. Better yet, read why Carson Schroer said the Seahawks needed to target Mafe before the 2022 draft. As Carson wrote then - remember, this is before the Hawks drafted him - Mafe was raw and would likely get 30 percent of the snaps, then develop further in 2023. Mafe was in on 37 percent of defensive plays last year, and I obviously agree with Carson. Mafe has a tremendous upside in 2023.
Surprise season No. 4: Seahawks safety Julian Love
Okay, maybe it's a stretch to say that Julian Love will have a surprising season. When Pete and John brought the former Giants safety to Seattle, I wrote that Love - Julian, not Jordan - needs to be spectacular for the Hawks. As I wrote then - go ahead and read it if you missed it the first time; I'll wait. I've got a stir fry going, just about to drop the shrimp. No, really, go ahead, it's good use of time for both of us.
Oh great, you're back. Okay, I know you didn't actually read it, so here's the tl;dr version. The Seahawks signed Love for two years at $12 million total, while Ryan Neal signed with the Shmucks - sorry, the Bucs - for one year at just $1.2 million. They do a lot of the same things, so it seems baffling at first. Neal subbed for the injured Jamal Adams and was great. Love will do the same this year, as long as Adams is out. Hopefully that won't be for too long, but still, here we are with Love instead of the versatile (and cheap) Neal.
I believe it comes down to two issues - consistency and tackling. Love wins both of those contests. There's a reason Carroll and Hurrt didn't turn to Neal immediately when Adams went down. He was pretty bad in 2021. Yes, he looked great in preseason, but he was practically a matador in 2020, missing 13 percent of his tackles. Yes, Neal was much improved last year, but he still missed over eight percent of his tackles.
Love - yes, I'm actually writing about Love now - missed less than four percent of his. And what was one of the Hawks biggest issues in 2022? Yes, a gold star to you, little 12 - tackling! Love is, in fact, a much surer tackler than Adams or Quandre Diggs. The fact he can slide up into the slot and is solid on special teams multiplies his value to the Hawks immensely, especially if Adams comes back and plays close to a full season. I think Julina Love will indeed be spectacular for Seattle.
Surprise season No. 5: Seahawks running back Kenny McIntosh
Yes 12s, for my fifth and final player, I'm going with the Seahawks seventh-round selection, a man who by all rights should be listed fourth in the depth chart at running back. Now, I can't say that Kenny McIntosh reminds me of Chris Carson that much, but his situation certainly does. Like Carson, McIntosh is joining a team with an established leader and a prized newcomer.
For Carson, Thomas Rawls was the Seattle veteran, and the team added Eddie Lacy - and no, I'll never live down the fact I was excited about that move. Mike Davis was brought into Seattle that season as well. While he hadn't proven much yet in the league, Davis was entering his third year in the league. To that point, he hadn't proven to be as valuable as DeeJay Dallas has now, but he was certainly ahead of Carson when the Seahawks started camp in 2017.
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McIntosh is facing more considerable challenges than Carson did. Kenneth Walker III should have been the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year and will be even better this season. The man penciled in at number two at running back isn't a guy who couldn't make weight on the International Space Station, but heralded rookie Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet ran for over 2,400 yards combined in his junior and senior seasons at UCLA. Despite leading the Georgia Bulldogs in rushing last year, McIntosh combined for less than 1,200 in his junior and senior campaigns. And as I mentioned already, DeeJay Dallas has been a solid contributor off the bench.
So how can Kenny McIntosh possibly turn in a surprising season with that competition ahead of him? Happily, it won't be via the Chris Carson method. You know, where everyone else stinks or gets injured, and you prove you only needed a chance to show you were The Guy all along? No, I happen to think the Seahawks will have a prolific offense, even better than last season. For all the reasons for that statement, check out this excellent write-up by our own Michael Thompson. A better offense means more plays and more plays means more opportunities. And in steps Kenny McIntosh.
Yes, Walker was a fine receiver out of the backfield, and at times he was spectacular. But that's not his forte. Charbonnet was an excellent receiver out of the backfield in college with 61 catches over his final two seasons. But McIntosh was special. Charbonnet averaging 8.5 yards per catch at UCLA. McIntosh averaged 11.3 yards per reception.
It's not as if that was a small sample size, either. K-Mac caught 43 balls as a senior for 505 yards and two scores. He had four receiving touchdowns overall, while Charbonnet had none. Know who was the third-leading receiver for the NCAA champion Bulldogs? That's right, the Seahawks seventh-round pick. Yes, I knew you 12s were smart. McIntosh can get it done, and I predict he'll do just that in the NFL this season, too.
For those of you about to say I'm ignoring Derick Hall or Charbonnet, or - mother of God give me strength - Devon Witherspoon or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, this is about surprising seasons. I think at least two of those four players will have outstanding rookie seasons, and they'll all be major contributors for the Seahawks. And that, dear 12s, should not be a surprise to anyone.