Seattle Seahawks Week 3 scouting report versus the Miami Dolphins

I’ll give you a little peek behind the curtain at 12th Man Rising. I prep the Seattle Seahawks' opponent scouting reports more than a week before the game. That way, I can watch next week’s opponent a week in advance and tweak the piece based on what happens in their game.

I didn’t have to tweak this week’s report on the Miami Dolphins. I had to rip it up and start over.

Not the entire thing. Not the defense or special teams. In other words, not the parts of the team that no one pays much attention to. Just the offense – the offense that last year became the 4th in league history to score at least 70 points in a game. The offense run by Mike McDaniel introduced the term “cheat motion” to the football world. The offense that could have won a medal in the 4X100 relay in Paris this Summer.

What should the Seattle Seahawks expect from the Miami Dolphins in Week 3?

That Bugatti is now missing its driver and no one quite knows what to expect. Tua Tagovailoa suffered his third verifiable concussion in the Dolphins loss to Buffalo last Thursday and his future remains in doubt. He says he intends to continue playing. But it seems inconceivable that he will be able to return by this Sunday.

Let’s try to figure out what that means to the 12s.

Last season

The Dolphins were riding high as one of the most pleasant surprises in the league for most of the 2023 season. They announced their arrival with a dismantling of the Denver Broncos in week 3. The 70-20 final score may not have been the most impressive stat from that game. Miami racked up over 700 yards of offense. They rushed for 350 yards. They had a QB throw for more than 300 yards and an RB rush for more than 200. They had a third player score four TDs. For the entire game, they averaged more than ten yards per play. I’ve never seen anything like that.

However, there were warning signs the following week, when they were spanked by the Bills, 48-20. The offense was still productive, but the Fins’ defense surrendered 7.4 yards per play. Still, when they defeated Dallas on Christmas Eve, they stood at 11-4 and were in prime position to make a strong playoff run.

But they suffered a couple of key injuries in the second half of the season that further diminished the defense. Jaelen Phillips went out in early December and was immediately followed by Jerome Baker. In their final three games – two regular season and one playoff – Miami surrendered 103 points, losing all three games. Their offense sputtered as well, due in no small part to a season-ending injury to center Connor Williams. (And yes – these are the same Jerome Baker and Connor Williams we now root for.)

Offseason

So Miami entered the 2024 off-season determined to beef up the defense and build on their offensive success. They signed veteran Calais Campbell to take the place of departed free agent lineman Christian Wilkins. They added cornerback Kendall Fuller and safety Jordan Power to help solidify the secondary. They drafted edge rushers Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara to help out the recovering Phillips.

On offense, they attempted to patch an offensive line that lost Williams and guard Robert Hunt to free agency and gave Tagovailoa one piece he was missing in tight end Jonnu Smith.

This season

The new pieces didn’t all seem in sync in Week 1, when the Dolphins had to overcome a ten-point second-half deficit to beat Jacksonville at home. Fortunately, one of their old pieces – Tyreek Hill – is still the most dangerous offensive player in the league and he helped bail them out along with kicker Jason Sanders. But in week two, they were thoroughly outclassed by Buffalo even before Tua’s injury. After he went out, they looked helpless. They lost at home to the division rival 31-10.

What to expect this week

Before Tua went down, the biggest question regarding the Dolphins in week three looked to be the health of their dynamic running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Mostert, who led the league in ’23 with 18 rushing touchdowns, and scored three more on pass receptions, did not play against the Bills. Achane was questionable. He did end up playing and ran hard, but was never able to break one of his huge, game-changing plays.

If both are healthy come Sunday, we would expect to see them heavily involved both as runners and receivers. If either is diminished, it significantly limits McDaniel’s options.

Of course, those options will already be limited by the likely quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Kansas State product came to the Dolphins in the 7th round of the 2022 draft. He has appeared in eight games, starting two of them his rookie season, and has done nothing to suggest he is anything more than a marginal backup.

McDaniel has expressed confidence but when pressed into service against the Bills, Thompson did not look like a professional quarterback. To be fair, coming into a game with virtually no prep and trailing, is a tall hill to climb. He should look somewhat better with a long week of practice before taking on Seattle.

And he still has Hill and fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle on the outside. They will scare any defensive coordinator, even if your defense boasts excellent cornerback play. And after a quiet first week, McDaniel seemed intent on getting Jonnu Smith involved far more against Buffalo. He will almost certainly be even more involved against the Hawks. Everyone knows a reliable tight end is a young QB’s best friend.

The Dolphins have a fine pair of offensive tackles in Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson. But Armstead had to leave the Buffalo game with a bad shoulder and his status is up in the air. If he can’t go on Sunday, Miami will be relying on veteran journeyman Kendall Lamm or rookie Patrick Paul to protect Thompson’s blind side. (Thompson, unlike Tagovailoa, is right-handed.) And the interior of the Dolphin line – with Aaron Brewer at center, Liam Eichenberg, and Robert Jones at guards - is suspect to begin with. Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy could be in for big days.

On defense, Miami has some solid veteran players, but until the rookie pass rushers begin producing and Phillips returns to form, they will struggle to bother opposing quarterbacks. David Long is among the best run-stuffing linebackers in the league, and he will need to play well to slow down the Seahawks running attack – especially if Kenneth Walker III is able to return.

Miami has a veteran secondary with Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey on the boundary, and Jordan Poyer at safety. Jevon Holland is a very good younger vet who teams up with Poyer on the back end. Kader Kohou plays the slot in nickel packages and should give the resurgent Jaxon Smith-Njigba opportunities to make some big plays.

Jason Sanders has been the Dolphins kicker since 2018 and is generally reliable. He has a range close to 60 yards. Jake Bailey has been in the upper tier of punters since he joined the New England Patriots back in 2019. Braxton Berrios has been an above-average return man who will handle both kickoffs and punts.

Before the Tua injury, this looked to be a tough game – the first real test for Mike Macdonald’s defense.  The potency of Miami’s offense made it likely that Ryan Grubb would play more ball control in an attempt to keep Hill, Waddle, Mostert, and Achane off the field as much as possible.

That’s all out the window now. The Dolphins still have far too many outstanding players to be taken lightly, and Mike McDaniel is a mad genius on offense, so Seattle will need a very strong effort if they want to improve to 3-0. But the game now is far more winnable than it was a week ago.

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