Seattle Seahawks Week 6 scouting report versus the San Francisco 49ers

Before the season, the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers were a popular choice to return to the Super Bowl in 2024. After all, they came about as close as possible to claiming their sixth Lombardi Trophy last year, falling to the Kansas City Chiefs by a field goal in overtime.

The Seattle Seahawks were a popular dark horse choice to make a strong push for the playoffs. The NFC West has been the conference representative in five of the past ten Super Bowls, so the pedigree is clearly there. Given that, this Thursday’s game at Lumen Field was seen as a key early battle for the division and a possible step toward a deep playoff run.

However, should the Hawks drop their third straight game on Thursday, it will ensure that no team in the NFC West will carry a winning record into the second third of the ’24 season. After winning in week one, the Niners and Hawks have combined to go a combined 3-5 over the last four weeks. Two of those wins came against the moribund New England Patriots, and the other was against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins. Both teams lost week five home games which they entered as heavy favorites.

What should the Seahawks expect from the 49ers in Week 6?

So, is this a case of “Oh, how the mighty have fallen?” Or are these just a couple of good teams in need of a solid victory to get over a rough patch? Since we will be devoting many thousands of words to discussing that topic with regard to Seattle, let’s spend a much shorter time going over where the 49ers stand heading into Thursday’s showdown.

49ers last season

The 49ers had a magical run through the 2023 season. They got off to a fast start, winning their first five games by at least a touchdown. After their bye, they rolled off another six straight, never being seriously tested. When the Hawks fell to San Fran 28-16 in week 14, it marked the closest any opponent came to Kyle Shanahan’s crew during that six-game run. The Hawks had dropped a home Thursday night game to the Niners two weeks earlier, 31-13. (Fortunately, I don’t believe in déjà vu.)

It's easy to forget that in the middle of that great start, San Francisco actually lost three straight games, so short down stretches are not exactly new to the team from the Bay. Shanahan usually figures out a way to right the ship, as he did last year.

49ers offseason

The big drama in San Francisco this off-season concerned standout wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The fifth-year player from Arizona State had a monster year in ’23, catching 75 balls for a staggering 17.9 yards per reception. He wanted a new contract, and when GM John Lynch balked, there was a lot of speculation that Aiyuk would be traded. The two sides were able to work out a four-year extension shortly before the start of the season.

Aiyuk’s re-signing meant that almost the entire offense, which ranked in the top three in points, yards, and yards-per-play, would return in ’24. The only minor change came right guard, where rookie Dominick Puni stepped in for the injured linemen Spencer Burford and Jon Feliciano.

On defense, there was more turnover. Lynch needed to rebuild his defensive line with the departure of ends Clelin Ferrell and Chase Young and tackle Arik Armstead. He also needed new help on the back end after veteran safety Tashaun Gipson was suspended and eventually signed with Jacksonville.

Maybe most importantly, the defense would be without stalwart linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl and would be out indefinitely.

The 49ers season so far

That Greenlaw injury proved to foreshadow a slew of new injuries once the 2024 season began. The defense was further depleted by the season-ending triceps tear that took out defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in week three. In last week’s loss to Arizona, standout safety Talanoa Hufanga missed the entire second half with a wrist injury. As of this writing, there is no definite word on his status for Thursday, but given the short turnaround, it looks as if a rookie, Malik Mustapha, may be tasked with keeping Seattle’s receivers from getting deep.

The Niners even lost kicker Jake Moody in the Arizona game when he tried to make a tackle on a return and sprained his ankle. I have written this before – most recently, after watching the Giants lose Graham Gano while trying to tackle Austin Ekeler in week two. If you are an NFL kicker, NEVER ATTEMPT TO MAKE A TACKLE! YOU WILL GET HURT! Ever since Sebastian Janikowski left the league, no NFL kicker has ever made a tackle without getting broken in two. Punters are ok. They’re different. But Jason Myers – after you kickoff, just head straight for the sidelines.

Of course, none of those injuries are as devastating as the recurring Achilles issues that have kept all-universe running back Christian McCaffrey on the shelf this year. It got so bad that the ultimate weapon traveled to Germany in search of treatment. He is back in the country now but will not be available on Thursday.

The Niners still have a wealth of talent across the board, but McCaffrey’s absence obviously hinders the offense. His replacement, Jordan Mason, has run very well, but he is not the threat to score on every touch that McCaffrey is. And he is nowhere near as good a receiving option.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is still putting up solid numbers, but the team is not scoring at the same pace as in 2023 when they finished third in the league. This season, they have fallen into the high middle in scoring. Rushing effectiveness is still good, but it is down from last year. Purdy is getting sacked more. They are turning the ball over more. Aiyuk is still shaking off some rust, though fourth-year wideout Jauan Jennings has been picking up some of that big-play slack. However, even Jennings was knocked out of the Cardinal game last week (though he did return.)

Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are still dangerous playmakers, the line is still intact and effective, and Kyle Juszczyk is still around to do a little bit of everything. But the Niners’ offense has clearly struggled to find its stride without McCaffrey on the field.

On defense, all of the changes and injuries are taking an even bigger toll. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner remain elite defenders, and the defensive backfield has enough talent, but the losses of Greenlaw and Hargraves are major. It’s not as if the defense has fallen apart, but its numbers are down across the board.

They are surrendering more yards – especially against the pass, where they are giving up a full yard-per-attempt more than they did in ’23. They continue to generate pressure at a high level, but so far, that has not resulted in turnovers. San Fran led the league in interceptions in 2023. They have just four through five games this year – none from their defensive backs. Their backs accounted for 17 picks in ’23.

All three of San Fran’s losses in ’24 have been by less than a touchdown, and in two of them, they surrendered late fourth-quarter leads. That never used to happen to the Niners. They just seem a little off across the board. So the question this Thursday is whether Seattle can shake out of their own doldrums and keep the 49ers down or whether San Fran is a sleeping giant about to waken.

Including the Wild Card playoff game in 2022, the Hawks have dropped five straight to the Niners, and the games have not been close. San Fran has an average winning margin of better than two touchdowns. However, before this recent downturn, Seattle had taken four in a row from San Francisco. Clearly, this rivalry has been built on streaks in the recent past.

We have seen Kyle Shanahan right floundering ships before, but this is a first for Mike Macdonald. As such, this Thursday’s game poses the biggest challenge in his young coaching career and will probably go a long way to determining how the rest of the season will progress.

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