1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
With the Polians gone from Indy and the owner claiming that he, and not the new GM, will have the final say on what happens with Manning and Luck, this pick isn’t as clear cut as it should be. Luck is the best QB prospect in almost 30 years, and the Colts would be dumb to pass on him just to keep an old and injured player happy.
2. St. Louis Rams – Matt Kalil, OT, Southern Cal
If the Rams actually pick at number 2, and don’t trade this pick to someone trading up for RG3, I’ll be shocked. But since this Mock Draft does not contain trades, Matt Kalil is the pick here. In a year without Luck in the draft, Kalil very well could go #1 overall.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
If someone trades up with the Rams to get RG3, the happiest team in the draft will be the Vikings who will be able to get Kalil. But in this draft w/o trades, Kalil is gone and the Vikings are stuck with the consolation prize of sorts in Reiff. Don’t let that fool you though, Reiff is the type of tackle that an anchor a line for a decade.
4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The first big surprise of this draft is Richardson going this early and to the Browns. Holmgren tends to avoid QBs in round 1, and RG3 really doesn’t fit his offense. Richardson is a huge upgrade for this offense and will go a long way toward making this offense respectable.
5. Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs have a lot of holes to fill, and Claiborne will certainly fill one and be a major upgrade in their secondary.
6. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin 3, QB, Baylor
There’s no way that RG3 slides this far w/o someone trading up for him, but if he does there’s absolutely no way the Redskins pass on him. RG3 is a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense, and they need a QB more than anyone in the league.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Jags need someone who can get open and make plays for their Gabbart. Blackmon is the best WR in this draft class, and the type of playmaker that will make any offense better.
8/9. Miami Dolphins+ – David DeCasto, G, Stanford
In a Mock Draft without trades Miami can’t move up to get the QB they want, so they settle for a offensive lineman that they need. This is high for a guard, by DeCasto is the rare Steve Hutchinson type guard that is worth it.
8/9. Carolina Panthers+ – Devon Still, DT, Penn State
While Carolina might prefer to get a weapon for their young QB, there isn’t any value on the board for those positions. Plus, the reason why Carolina lost game was usually because of its lack of defense. Still is the best DT in this draft, and will go a long way to helping the Panthers become respectable against the run.
10. Buffalo Bills - Dre KirkPatrick, CB, Alabama
Buffalo has to do something about their secondary and their pass defense. KirkPaktrick falling to them here would feel like some sort of divine gift, and there’s no way that they’d pass on him.
11/12. Kansas City Chiefs+ – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
One of the reasons the Chiefs went through so many QBs last season was because they simply couldn’t pass protect enough. Martin might be the 3rd OT in this draft, but he’s still good enough to anchor the line for next decade.
11/12. Seattle Seahawks+ – Nick Perry, DE, Southern Cal
This draft has falling in a horrible way for the Seahawks. Many of the players they’d want are done. Those rated in this area are either not someone the need, high risk of being bust material, or both. Instead, I have the Seahawks reaching a bit for Perry. Perry isn’t value at 11 or 12, but he’s a impact pass rusher that the Seahawks need, and perhaps the best pass rusher in this draft.
13. Arizona Cardinals - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
With 4 offensive lineman gone in the first 12 picks, the Cardinals will be stuck either having to really reach for a player if they want to fill their biggest need. Instead They’ll fill their 2nd biggest need by picking up a WR who can finally take some coverage off of Larry Fitzgerald.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Coples’s draft grades vary wildly depending on who’s doing the evaluating. I went back and looked at the film again an no longer believe he’s an elite pass rusher. He put up some big numbers against lesser players, but disappeared when playing against good pass blocker. Instead, I think he’s a good fit at the 5-technique of a 3-4 defense. Dallas needs defensive help, and Coples is the type of high upside athlete that Jerry Jones likes.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina
The Eagles desperately need linebacker help, and Ingram is the best of this years linebackers. He’s not the traditional speedy pass rusher that you usually see go this high. Instead, he’s a big bruising tackler who can play on the strong side and make a huge impact against the run. It’s exactly what Phily needs.
16. New York Jets – Flether Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
Cox is a perfect fit for the Rex Ryan defense. He’s slightly undersized, but explosive and disruptive.
17. Cincinnati Bangles (From Oakland) Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Bangles biggest needs are RB and S, but neither position has a player near this draft position. Instead I expect they’ll take a WR to give their young QB another weapon to work with.
18. San Diego Chargers Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
The Chargers really need help at OLB, and Upshaw is a good fit for their system. He’s a solid player who good as a pass rusher, in pass coverage, and against the run. Just what the chargers need.
19. Chicago Bears – Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
They Bears have to begin getting younger on defense. Kuechly is an elite ILB prospect that can be the heir apparent and inevitable injury fill in for Brian Urlacher. He’s also fully capable of playing on the strong side and making a big impact when Urlacher is still there and healthy.
20. Tennessee Titans – Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
The Titans would love a WR here, but there isn’t any that are value with this pick. They also need help with their pass defense, and Dennard is a solid corner who will instantly upgrade their secondary.
21. Denver Broncos (8-8)* – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
The Broncos will likely lose this weekend and finish the season on a 4 game losing streak. The shine has definitely left the Tim Tebow star, and although he’s likely to go into 2012 as the starter, there’s no longer any reason to believe that Tebow will survive 2012 in Denver. The Broncos must look to the future at the position, and getting Tannehill here is a good start.
22. New York Giants (9-7)* – Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
The Giants need defensive help, and Brown is speedy linebacker who fits well into the Giants scheme. He’s a solid weak side LB who’ll be an upgrade and help solidify this defense.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)* – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Having already gotten the WR this offense needs, the Bangles will be happy to get Konz to help them get younger and better on the offensive line.
24. Houston Texans (10-6)* - Cordy Glen, G, Georia
Houston is one of the most talented and complete teams in the NFL, but they need an interior lineman and Glen is their guy.
25. Cleveland Browns(10-6)*(from Atlanta) – Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
The Browns got their RB earlier, and now they get there TE. Allen isn’t a game changer in the passing game, but he’s solid in that regard and is also a good blocker.
26. Detroit Lions (10-6)* – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Lions need offensive line, but the value in this part of the round is limited. They also need a CB or 2, and Jenkins is a tremendous talent. Had be played at a bigger program against better competition, be might be a top 10 pick.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)* – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
The Stealers must start getting younger on defense, and Worthy would be a great start to that up front.
28. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)* – Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
The Raven’s Linebackers are getting older, and they need to get some youth in there with the vets while their’s still time. Hightower is a tackling machine, and will create a scary combo on the inside next to Ray Lewis.
29. New England(13-3)*(from Saints) – Dantari Poe, DT, Memphis
New England’s defense was one of the worst in the league and needs a massive overhaul. Poe is a god start to that. He’s a massive 350 lb. disruptive run stuffer who’ll be an instant upgrade in the heart of their defense.
30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)* – Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
The 49ers defense is good enough to win a superbowl, the offense is another story. If the reports are true and Alex Smith is about to sign a massive contract extension, the 49ers better get him some weapons.
31. New England Patriots (13-3)* - Mark Baron, SS, Alabama
The 5th Alabama player, and the 4th from their defense, might make the biggest impact on his new team. The Patriots secondary is dreadfully bad, and Baron is a great fit for what they do on defense.
32. Green Bay Packers (15-1)* – Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
Despite the 15-1 record, the Packers finished the year with the 32nd ranked pass defense. The must find a better pass rush, and Montgomery is one of the top pass rushers in this year’s draft.
+Draft order dependent on coin flip, and will be determined in February
* Draft order dependent on playoff results