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Mathematical NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.

Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.

In the top spot again is Chicago. They hold that spot by the narrowest of margins over the Patriots. It’s also important to note that no team right now has broken the 90 threshold, meaning there are no genuinely dominant teams.

Also interesting is that undefeated Atlanta is all the way down at 5th in the rankings. They’ve beaten every team they’ve played, but they haven’t done so in a dominant way. There have been a lot of close wins, and the team has some weakness that haven’t been exploited in ways that have led to losses.

The Seahawks pick up some ground, and move up to 12th. Their defense power rating continues to get worse ever game, and now is downright average. The biggest problem that the Seahawks have though is their special teams. While it is generally a strength, the very poor decisions being made repeatedly by Leon Washington is showing up in the special teams stats.

Rank

Last

Team

O

D

PTDif

ST

Power

1

1

Chicago

13.75

12.75

14.5

6.32

88.8

2

4

New England

13.95

13.25

11.5

8.08

88.5

3

3

San Francisco

16.4

11.2

10.7

-3.56

85.5

4

2

Houston

13.45

12.2

12.5

-10.06

83.6

5

5

Atlanta

13.75

14.85

9.6

0.9

76.4

6

14

Tampa Bay

15.15

13.1

5.2

-9.48

75.7

7

6

NY Giant

13.9

15.1

7.6

-4.86

72.8

8

11

Denver

14.05

12.05

7.5

7.04

72.4

9

10

Green Bay

13

12.8

5.8

12.86

72.3

10

15

San Diego

12.95

12.45

3.5

-3.74

68.5

11

8

Baltimore

13.95

13.1

2.9

3.82

65.6

12

16

Seattle

13.55

12.7

1.8

-0.54

64.2

14

12

Pittsburgh

13.25

11.9

3.4

4.84

61.9

15

7

Minnesota

14.2

12.6

0.8

6.56

57.9

16

9

Washington

15.65

14.2

-2.5

-1.46

56.9

17

13

Miami

13

12.5

2.7

14.96

55.4

18

25

Carolina

14.8

13.4

-3.9

7.82

54.7

19

24

Cincinnati

13.4

14.2

-3.7

2.68

49.4

20

21

Philadelphia

13.55

13.1

-6.3

-19.16

49.0

21

17

Arizona

11.4

13.2

-3.2

-10.16

47.5

13

19

New Orleans

13.5

15.6

-1.3

-5.64

47.5

22

26

Cleveland

12.05

13.35

-4.6

7.88

47.4

23

23

Detroit

13.25

13.15

0.5

-17.26

45.9

24

18

St. Louis

13.6

13.4

-6.2

-9.92

44.3

25

22

Dallas

13

13.75

-3.8

6.66

42.8

26

29

Indianapolis

13.05

14.7

-4

-7.56

42.2

27

20

NY Jets

12.25

13.2

-4

12.2

41.3

28

28

Oakland

12.5

14.1

-7.2

-9.86

39.2

29

27

Buffalo

14.45

16.35

-8.5

12.46

35.8

30

30

Tennessee

13.8

14.6

-14

6.54

34.1

31

32

Kansas City

13.35

15.8

-13.4

-7.5

30.9

32

31

Jacksonville

11.25

13.4

-12.8

-6.24

26.8

D - Index of many defensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt. Lower numbers are better, since that means the D gave up fewer yards.O – Index of many offensive stats, including yards per rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt

ST – index of many special teams stats, including yard per return, both offensively and defensely, for both punts and kick returns.

PTDif – Point differential per game.

Topics: NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Seattle Seahawks

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  • Hawk_Eye

    Keith, I like the fact that your power poll is based upon real numbers. That is why I discount all the other power polls out there, they are just popularity contests based upon perceptions. Great job!

    • 12thMan_Rising

      Thanks man. My formula is’t perfect. Since the season started I’ve actually gone back and looked at a few of the assumptions that I made in the development of my model, and realized that there are ways to eliminate them in favor of data driven analysis. In other words, next year’s rankings will be even better.

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