Mathematical NFL Power Rankings – Week 10
By Keith Myers
It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.
Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.
In the top spot again is Chicago. They hold that spot by the narrowest of margins over the Patriots. It’s also important to note that no team right now has broken the 90 threshold, meaning there are no genuinely dominant teams.
Also interesting is that undefeated Atlanta is all the way down at 5th in the rankings. They’ve beaten every team they’ve played, but they haven’t done so in a dominant way. There have been a lot of close wins, and the team has some weakness that haven’t been exploited in ways that have led to losses.
The Seahawks pick up some ground, and move up to 12th. Their defense power rating continues to get worse ever game, and now is downright average. The biggest problem that the Seahawks have though is their special teams. While it is generally a strength, the very poor decisions being made repeatedly by Leon Washington is showing up in the special teams stats.
Rank |
Last
Team
O
D
PTDif
ST
Power
1
1
Chicago
13.75
12.75
14.5
6.32
88.8
2
4
New England
13.95
13.25
11.5
8.08
88.5
3
3
San Francisco
16.4
11.2
10.7
-3.56
85.5
4
2
Houston
13.45
12.2
12.5
-10.06
83.6
5
5
Atlanta
13.75
14.85
9.6
0.9
76.4
6
14
Tampa Bay
15.15
13.1
5.2
-9.48
75.7
7
6
NY Giant
13.9
15.1
7.6
-4.86
72.8
8
11
Denver
14.05
12.05
7.5
7.04
72.4
9
10
Green Bay
13
12.8
5.8
12.86
72.3
10
15
San Diego
12.95
12.45
3.5
-3.74
68.5
11
8
Baltimore
13.95
13.1
2.9
3.82
65.6
12
16
Seattle
13.55
12.7
1.8
-0.54
64.2
14
12
Pittsburgh
13.25
11.9
3.4
4.84
61.9
15
7
Minnesota
14.2
12.6
0.8
6.56
57.9
16
9
Washington
15.65
14.2
-2.5
-1.46
56.9
17
13
Miami
13
12.5
2.7
14.96
55.4
18
25
Carolina
14.8
13.4
-3.9
7.82
54.7
19
24
Cincinnati
13.4
14.2
-3.7
2.68
49.4
20
21
Philadelphia
13.55
13.1
-6.3
-19.16
49.0
21
17
Arizona
11.4
13.2
-3.2
-10.16
47.5
13
19
New Orleans
13.5
15.6
-1.3
-5.64
47.5
22
26
Cleveland
12.05
13.35
-4.6
7.88
47.4
23
23
Detroit
13.25
13.15
0.5
-17.26
45.9
24
18
St. Louis
13.6
13.4
-6.2
-9.92
44.3
25
22
Dallas
13
13.75
-3.8
6.66
42.8
26
29
Indianapolis
13.05
14.7
-4
-7.56
42.2
27
20
NY Jets
12.25
13.2
-4
12.2
41.3
28
28
Oakland
12.5
14.1
-7.2
-9.86
39.2
29
27
Buffalo
14.45
16.35
-8.5
12.46
35.8
30
30
Tennessee
13.8
14.6
-14
6.54
34.1
31
32
Kansas City
13.35
15.8
-13.4
-7.5
30.9
32
31
Jacksonville
11.25
13.4
-12.8
-6.24
26.8
D – Index of many defensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt. Lower numbers are better, since that means the D gave up fewer yards.O – Index of many offensive stats, including yards per rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt
ST – index of many special teams stats, including yard per return, both offensively and defensely, for both punts and kick returns.
PTDif – Point differential per game.