Mathematical NFL Power Rankings – Week 11
By Keith Myers
It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.
Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.
Chicago holds on to the top spot in spite of the ugly game with their backup QB getting a plenty of playing time. They have a bit of a cushion over #2, so as long as Jay Cutler isn’t out for an extended period of time, they should be able to hold on to that spot.
I’m a bit surprised that the Texans are down at #4. They look like a very good and complete team on Sundays. What’s holding them back is their special teams play. The same goes for Tampa at #6. Is either of them had competent special teams units, they could be #1 right now.
The Seahawks remain at #12 in spite of a completely dominant performance over the Jets. They ended up getting jumped over by the Steelers, to keep them there, but they also closed the gap between themselves and the group above them. Another game like that, and we’ll see them jump higher in the rankings
Rank |
Last
Team
O
D
ST
Power
1
1
Chicago
13.5
12.4
6.56
90.1
2
3
San Francisco
16.4
11.65
2.76
87.4
3
2
New England
13.85
13.8
6.96
87.2
4
4
Houston
13.15
12.15
-8.64
87.1
5
8
Denver
13.9
11.9
12.9
77.4
6
6
Tampa Bay
15.2
13.35
-10.64
76.7
7
11
Baltimore
13.95
13.15
7.68
76.5
8
5
Atlanta
13.6
15.05
-0.42
75.3
9
9
Green Bay
13
12.8
12.86
73.9
10
7
NY Giant
13.8
14.7
-9.32
70.6
11
14
Pittsburgh
12.8
11.9
4.32
69.3
12
12
Seattle
13.85
12.55
0.9
67.3
14
10
San Diego
13.15
12.5
-2.04
63.4
15
15
Minnesota
14.2
12.65
2.52
62.1
16
16
Washington
15.65
14.2
-1.46
61.5
17
17
Miami
12.8
12.7
12.12
56.2
18
23
Detroit
13.35
13.3
-11.66
55.7
19
19
Cincinnati
13.15
14
6.74
53.8
20
25
Dallas
13
13.65
15.14
53.7
21
13
New Orleans
13.75
16.25
-4.4
53.6
13
22
Cleveland
12.05
13.35
7.88
51.3
22
21
Arizona
11.4
13.2
-10.16
50.8
23
18
Carolina
14.3
13.35
-0.64
50.0
24
26
Indianapolis
13.15
14.45
-6.72
49.2
25
24
St. Louis
13.6
13.55
-11.6
48.9
26
27
NY Jets
12
13.5
7.24
46.9
27
30
Tennessee
13.7
14.3
7.6
45.4
28
20
Philadelphia
13.5
13.2
-23.36
41.3
29
29
Buffalo
14.75
15.85
14.1
40.5
30
28
Oakland
12.45
14.1
-14.48
36.7
31
32
Jacksonville
11.45
13.5
-6.08
32.0
32
31
Kansas City
13.2
15
-3.96
26.8
D – Index of many defensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt. Lower numbers are better, since that means the D gave up fewer yards.
O – Index of many offensive stats, including yards per rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt
ST – index of many special teams stats, including yard per return, both offensively and defensely, for both punts and kick returns.
The power ranking is also constructed with 3rd down efficiency turnovers, points, pass rush efficiency and a host of other stats that aren’t included in the table above.