If you have some spare cash lying around, I have an investment for you to consider. I mean, why shell out 150 bucks for a Seattle Seahawks Devon Witherspoon jersey when, for a few dollars more, you might own the whole dang team?
Not so fast, you say. Initial Seahawks projections placed the price tag in the 11-billion-dollar neighborhood. How could Joe Sixpack – or even Reuben Growler – afford an NFL franchise?
You are in luck. On Friday, ESPN.com’s Seth Wickersham reported “softer-than-expected” interest in the Super Bowl champion. He quoted one executive with knowledge of the proceedings as saying, “There isn’t as much action as there was with Denver and Washington.”
What does lukewarm interest in the Seattle Seahawks say about the team’s future?
As you may recall, the Commanders and Broncos were the last two NFL franchises to change hands. The Broncos' price tag in 2022 was 4.65 billion. The Commanders were sold a year later for just over six billion. That’s solid growth, but how do you almost double that price in less than three years?
Well, you do it in part because the Los Angeles Lakers sold for 10 billion last year. And they’re not even a football team! Surely, an NFL franchise, even one in the remote northwest corner of the country, is worth more than a mere basketball team, even if it is one of the most elite brands in the world.
On top of that, Forbes now lists three NFL franchises at more than 10 billion, with the Dallas Cowboys topping the list at a staggering 13 billion. The Seahawks rank in the approximate middle of that list at 6.7 billion.
So if Forbes has them at 6.7 billion, how is it that league execs expect a sale upwards of 11 billion? That one is easy. NFL franchises don’t come on the market very often. And they are the premier luxury item for the ultra-rich.
What would you rather have – your own private island or an NFL team? Come on. There are over a quarter of a million islands possessed by Sweden alone. But there are only 32 NFL franchises. When one is up for sale, buyers pay a premium.
Just maybe not quite as much of a premium as initially anticipated.
When you hear those in-the-know discuss the reasons, the most obvious one is almost an afterthought. To a regular fan like me, I think that maybe – just maybe – prices have topped out, at least for the time being.
Markets can explode, but at some point, they reach a ceiling. Just like players. After all, even though Nick Emmanwori’s ceiling may be too high for me to see at present, I know it’s up there somewhere.
There are other theories beyond sheer expense. The most encouraging suggests that looming NBA expansion in the city has some potential buyers considering whether that may be a better investment right now. The reason I prefer that one is that it confirms the NBA is coming soon.
The scariest explanation comes in the form of Washington’s “millionaire tax,” which goes into effect a few years down the road. General manager John Schneider has said that the progressive tax could hurt the club’s ability to sign top-tier free agents. That in turn could worry prospective owners about their ability to field a winning team without paying above-market salaries.
Then, of course, there are all the mundane, civics-class issues related to state and city politics, new stadium financing, and other assorted miscellany.
Fans usually don’t care about any of that. Fans just want good owners who will invest in the team. Paul Allen provided that. His sister Jody has continued the tradition. The Seahawks have seen two Super Bowl championships as a result.
But Paul’s will stipulated a sale, and that is going to happen. There will be new ownership. Several names – both well-known and obscure – have been floated. Nothing is even close to being certain at this point.
Both Washington and Denver have seen improvements arrive with new owners. In the Commanders' case, it was virtually inevitable. They were previously controlled by one of the worst owners in league history. That should be a cautionary tale.
Washington went from an excellent owner in Jack Kent Cooke to a pariah in Daniel Snyder, and the team suffered mightily as a result. New owner Josh Allen is attempting to repair decades of damage.
Hopefully, that will not happen in Seattle. And there is every reason to believe it will not. This soft market may even be a blessing in that regard, allowing a wider pool of potential buyers. A slightly lower sale price may free up new ownership to spend a little more on the team.
But I fully expect the market to heat up before anything final happens. Maybe 11 billion is indeed too optimistic. But this will be a record sale. It will soar past the Commanders' figure and should top the Lakers as well.
You will hear lots of rumors in the coming months. I wouldn’t waste my time emotionally investing in any of the names until we get a lot closer to an actual sale. Then, we’ll all begin analyzing who can best carry on the Allen tradition and keep the Seahawks in the upper tiers of the NFL.
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