Power In The NFC West

A couple days ago, Hanley posted an extremely thought provoking article comparing the Seahawks to the 49ers. It realy made me wonder who far apart the teams were last season. Watching the games, I felt that the Seahawks were very close. Look at the standing though, and you get a different picture.

The best way to handle this, in my opinion, is to take the emotions out of it and quantify the results. (I can’t help it, years of being an experimental physicist takes it’s toll on how the brain functions). In case you don’t remember, last season I attempted to develop a mathematical formula to turn every NFL team’s stats into a true power ranking system. My formula evolved over the course of the season, and by the end I was quite happy with the results. (*explanation below)

Below is how each team ranked at the end of the season compared to the rest of the NFL. So when you see a 6 for Seattle’s defense, that’s because it had the 6th best defense in the NFL. I included each of the major categories used to calculate the power rankings, as well as the final overall power ranking at the end of the regular season.

I think these results explain extremely well the differences between what you see when watching the games, and what the standings say. The Seahawks finished just 2 spots behind the niners in terms of defense (both were extremely good) and just 4 spots behind them on offense (both were rather mediocre). For most of the game, the teams are very similar and very equal.

The biggest differences between the 2 teams was in special teams and turnovers. San Francisco’s special teams were outstanding where as the Seahawk’s were below average. The Niners also led the entire league in turnover differential, and while the Seahawks were 4 spots behind them, the actual numerical separation was much larger than that. (+28 to +8)

The Niners were able to turn those 2 phases of the game into a huge difference in points. It makes me think that my rankings probably have too much reliance on turnovers, but that’s a topic for another day. So basically, the Niners were able to use special teams and turnover differential to prop up a team that wasn’t nearly as good in the flow of the game as people think.

All of this just furthers my belief that the Seahawks are much closer to the 49ers than anyone realizes. I show’d almost a year ago that turnovers are almost entirely luck based, and thus a very a fickle friend. Teams that are good at getting them one season, are almost never good at collecting them the following season. Its a safe bet that the 49ers wont be close to any NFL records in that regard again in 2012, and are likely to be back down in the middle of the pack next season.

And that leaves special teams as the 49ers only real area of strength compared to the Seahawks. Make no mistake, it’s a huge advantage at this point. That is probably one of the reasons the Seahawks made such a big deal about getting defensive guys with so much speed this offseason. Hopefully it will result in better special teams results on the field.

I should note one other thing: injuries. The Seahawks were decimated by injuries last season. It wasn’t just the offensive line, though that got a lot of attention. linebacker and corner were also hit really hard. Injuries to these 2 positions tend to really hurt special teams play, since guys are mostly taken off the special teams units when they become starters. That means that there were too many practice squad guys and street free agents playing on Seahawks special teams.

The 49ers, on the other hand, were the league’s least injured team in 2011. Good things always happen when your starters can stay healthy like that. I can’t imagine that will happen again this season. You can expect a couple key injuries to hurt the niners in 2012 that they didn’t have to deal with in 2011.

As you can see, the 2 teams are much closer that most people seem to think.

The other 2 teams in the NFC West? Not so much. Both have a ways to go.

*Rankings Explanation

These rankings will differ greatly from what you’ll find in other places. Don’t be alarmed, that’s actually a good thing. Everyone else bases their ranking on total yards, but that is a stupid way to rank teams. Total yards depends too much on opportunity, game situation, and other variables that are not accounted for uncontrollable in terms of analysis.

For instance, when leading late in the game, teams often run the ball a lot more in order to run out the clock. this means that the opposing defense is like to give up more total rushing yards than had the game been closer. They’ll also give up less passing yards than if the scores at been reversed. But does that make the defending team’s pass defense better, or the run defense worse, just because of the other team’s play calling in that situation? clearly the answer is no, it doesn’t. Any an NFL season is much too small of a sample size for these things to “average out” by the end of the season.

Instead, a better way to examine the quality of a run defense is just how many yards they give up per running play. Give up only 3.5 yards per attempt, and you’re clearly better than the team that gives up 4.5 yards per attempt. In this way you can evaluate a team’s run defense, and pass defense as well, independent of how good or bad the team’s offense is.

This is the basis for my rankings. things get a little more complicated in the process of turning those stats into comprehensive rankings. To do that, you have to know how much each component analyzed contributes to a team’s chance of winning. Run defense and pass defense aren’t equal contributors, just as an example. And that information, I’m going to keep proprietary for the time being.